This article kicks off a series in which I attempt to turn $1,000 in to $10,000 by trading prediction markets. The idea is that I will provide monthly

Turning $1,000 to $10,000 on Insight Prediction - by Chris

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2022-05-20 21:00:05

This article kicks off a series in which I attempt to turn $1,000 in to $10,000 by trading prediction markets. The idea is that I will provide monthly portfolio updates via Substack, and as I transparently track this portfolio in real time, people will follow along and root for it (or against it). If I succeed, it will be fun public journey. I fail, I will spectacularly fall flat on my face in front of the entire world. The uncertainty is half the fun.

This $1,000 seed money has graciously been provided by Insight Prediction, a prediction market startup that is still in Beta testing. Here is a link to their Discord server:

If you don’t know what a “prediction market” is, you should be able to glean it from context by glancing at the most popular markets on Insight Prediction (below). Think of it as investing in stocks, but rather than investing in stocks, you are investing in geopolitical events.

Insight Prediction allows you to trade binary options (“event driven contracts”) on these geopolitical events, contracts which range between .1 and 99.9 cents in price, and pay off one dollar if the conditions are satisfied and zero otherwise. A "Latest Yes Price" of 87¢ indicates that the event has an 87% chance of happening. If you buy one share of the "Yes" contract at 87¢, and it happens, you will be paid $1.00, with a 13¢ profit (14.9%). 

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