Capturing luck with “or” instead of “and”
I put all my money in a few penny stocks—those are stocks whose prices are less than a dollar. Back then, stock prices could only be multiples of 1/8. Their small denomination meant that any fluctuation was a large (as a percentage) fluctuation in value. Some days I had the worst portfolio, other days I had the best. The competition happened to end on an up-day.
Startups need luck too, in finding advertisement channels that work, in the right mix of features and usability that triggers product/market fit, in cultivating a useful social media presence, on employee number one working out well, on a competitor not making a fatal move, on there being enough money in the market, on appropriate pricing, on market forces not shifting the rules of the game, and the list goes on. And that’s after the luck of where and when you were born, the color of your skin, your gender, and that list goes on too.
When you put it that way, it’s obvious why startups fail so frequently! They need a lot of success in a lot of areas, which is a lot of “good luck” to string together.
