The Cold War is over. Russia is a fading power. The most important geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century is between China and the USA. Any analysis

[Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050

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2021-05-26 15:00:11

The Cold War is over. Russia is a fading power. The most important geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century is between China and the USA. Any analysis of the conflict must take into account the possibility that it escalates into a hot war. This post explores how a direct conflict between the USA and China might unfold. It assumes strong AI has not been invented and nuclear weapons are not used.

The United States' interests have been basically unchanged since 1945. Its primary objective is to maintain the liberal world order (LWO), also known as the "rules-based international order". The LWO describes a set of global, rule-based structured relationships based on economic liberalism as embodied by the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. The LWO promotes political liberalism too, albeit much less consistently.

As the primary power behind the LWO, the United States designed it to maximize economic and political power of the United States. As the United States' relative power wanes, we may see a transition toward a more multipolar LWO.