First Principles
There is no magic answer that will guarantee that all three conditions are satisfied. But, by making a series of 95% confidence bets, gathering more data along the way, you can quickly find seemingly impossible futures.
A first principle is something that cannot be deduced from any other axiom or assumption. First-principles thinking is about minimizing assumptions. Fewer assumptions mean less risk. So first principles thinking is intertwined with risk minimization. That makes first principles thinking a great decision-making framework.
We make better predictions with more data. Bayes' Theorem tells us how prior knowledge of conditions can affect the probability of an outcome. Machine learning models often do much better with more training data. First-principles thinking helps build a foundation by breaking down big decisions into a series of small but probable bets.
I didn't know what I wanted to do in undergrad and thought that anyone who thought they did was lying. But, I did know that STEM fields seemed to lead to more exciting outcomes - economists, physicists, mathematicians, computer scientists, engineers. So, I studied mathematics for maximum optionality. I could always go from math to physics or math to computer science easier than in the other direction. It was a small bet, considering the optionality. Even then, I hedged with classes in philosophy, history, and the classics.
