“doom” is a more general term but is generally understood to be a scenario in which a sophisticated AI causes the end of human existence.
And so, your p(doom) is your best guess at the odds of AI killing us all. The specific circumstances on which these happen are wide and varied- from accidental paperclip maximizing to bioterrorists using AI to build highly infectius deadly diseases.
If you’re not exposed to these circles, the concept of p(doom) likely seems something reserved for extremists and philistines, at the edges of intellectual society- especially if they declare a p(doom) greater than, say, 1%. And yet, many public and influential figures (more commonly within the AI industry itself) have declared their p(doom) at alarmingly high levels.
The rest of this post is a compilation of notable figures’ declarations of their p(doom) along with their reasoning (if included). I hope this serves to provide a balanced perspective on what the industry, regulators, and commentators think at this snapshot in time about the dangers of AI.