Cognitive Biases in Penalty Shootouts: Evaluating Fairness in ABAB and ABBA Formats
Abstract: This study examines the impact of cognitive biases on soccer player performance in penalty shootouts, focusing on the fairness of two different formats: the current ABAB sequence and the alternative ABBA sequence, modeled after the tennis tiebreak system. We consider the context of a real-world penalty shootout scenario, where each team takes five shots. The study brings attention to a previously overlooked aspect of the fairness debate in soccer, emphasizing the significant impact of cognitive biases on outcomes. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we modeled 10,000 penalty shootouts for each format, incorporating psychological biases such as overconfidence, loss aversion, and social comparison to estimate the likelihood of success for each shot. Our findings indicate that while the ABBA format reduces the first-mover advantage observed in the ABAB format, a slight bias in favor of the first team still persists in the ABBA format. Statistical analyses, including two-sample t -tests and chi-square tests, confirmed that the differences in winning probabilities between the two formats are statistically significant. The study suggests that although the ABBA format offers a more balanced approach, cognitive biases continue to play a critical role in influencing outcomes. These results help players stay focused, manage pressure, and improve performance during high-stakes penalty shootouts, leading to better team outcomes. It also allows coaches to act as decision observers by using a checklist to identify cognitive biases in specific decision-making situations. Keywords: sports psychology; cognitive biases; soccer; penalty shootouts; ABAB format; ABBA format
Da Silva, S.; Matsushita, R. Cognitive Biases in Penalty Shootouts: Evaluating Fairness in ABAB and ABBA Formats. Psychol. Int. 2024, 6, 827-841. https://doi.org/10.3390/psycholint6040053
