Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known | Metaculus
Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this "general" intelligence has remained elusive.
AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.
For these purposes we will thus define "AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
