Sure, there may be electoral defeat in the midterms for some politicians. And there may even be a Senate hearing. If some military officials had affairs, they may even be demoted to taking consulting jobs as private equity firms.
But there will be no real consequences for those that as late as July 2021 said this would not happen. Or those that encouraged aggressive military posturing for the last two decades. Or those that promised a democratic beacon in the middle east. Don’t worry, the president of Afghanistan is safe and may even hit the lecture circuit soon.
Who are these people anyway? I don’t know. Most people don’t know. You’ll read newspaper articles and they’ll mention the current or former president. They’ll mention a spicy tweet from some social commentator. But they won’t mention those that whispered into the ears of officials for the last twenty years.
Apart from the president, the decision makers don’t change. They’re revered as being apolitical, simply executing orders, making recommendations and giving their best assessment with the information available to them. Thousands have built there careers on this war.