Why We Got It So Wrong
If the Democrats nominated a woman to run for president, would you expect her to do better among female voters than the guy who ran in her place four years before?
If the Democrats nominated a Black woman to run for president, would you expect her to do better among Black voters than the white candidate who ran in her place four years before?
If the Republicans nominated a guy who ran on mass deportation and consistently said horrible things about Latino immigrants, would you expect him to do worse among Latino voters over time?
If the Democrats nominated a vibrant Black woman who was the subject of a million brat memes, would you expect her to do better among young voters than the old white guy who ran before her?
If you said yes to any of these questions, as I would have a month ago, you have some major rethinking to do, because all of these expectations were wrong.
In 2024, Kamala Harris did worse among Black voters than Joe Biden did in 2020. She did worse among female voters. She did much worse among Latino voters. She did much worse among young voters.
