Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US

Nature Communications volume  12, Article number: 3118 (2021 ) Cite this article

Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.

Social distancing remains a primary strategy for slowing the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by reducing the frequency of close contact between individuals and thus minimizing the risk of transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Prior experience with the 2009 H1N1 influenza and Ebola suggests that social distancing is effective in reducing disease transmission1,2.

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