Anatomy of three Trump elections: How Americans shifted in 2024 vs. 2020 and 2016
President Donald Trump is projected to win the presidency for a second time in a historic comeback. There are some key takeaways in how the country’s politics have shifted over three straight elections with Trump on the ballot.
CNN’s exit poll results from 2016, 2020 and 2024 reveal how a sour economy was a drag on Vice President Kamala Harris, how she failed to drive an uptick in support among women even though there was an uptick in support for abortion rights, and how Latino men, in particular, gravitated toward Trump.
CNN's exit polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year's election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the election themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they're most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That's particularly true before the exit poll numbers are adjusted to match final election results.
Harris’ edge among women this year did not exceed either President Joe Biden’s or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s, a troubling sign for the vice president given that she tried to mobilize female voters on the issue of abortion. Trump maintained an edge among men.
