It is now virtually certain that the year 2024 will be the warmest in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, going back to 1940, based on the data available thr

Monthly Climate Bulletin The year 2024 set to end up as the warmest on record

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2024-12-22 05:30:04

It is now virtually certain that the year 2024 will be the warmest in the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, going back to 1940, based on the data available through October. The month was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80ºC above the 1991-2002 average for the month. October 2024 was 1.65ºC above pre-industrial level, marking the 15th month in a 16-month period with average temperatures above the 1.5ºC threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

As the parties involved in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are about to gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the 29th Conference of the Parties COP29, the newly released data brings further evidence of the continuing global warming trend, according to Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): “After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.”

Annual global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from 1940 to 2024. The estimate for 2024 is provisional and based on data from January to October. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service /ECMWF.

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