Elon Musk wants to dominate robotaxis—first he needs to catch up to Waymo
This evening, Elon Musk will take the stage in Los Angeles for an event titled “We Robot.” Musk has said that the event, which was originally scheduled for August, will feature a “Tesla Robotaxi unveil.” A lot could be riding on the day’s announcements.
The stock market values Tesla at $755 billion, far more than companies like General Motors ($53 billion) and Ford ($42 billion) that sell more vehicles than Tesla. Tesla’s high valuation seems to reflect hopes that Tesla will dominate the emerging market for driverless cars.
Yet Tesla’s engineers have struggled to meet the ambitious timelines announced by Musk over the years. Since 2016, Musk has repeatedly claimed that Tesla is less than two years from full autonomy. Yet one independent evaluation of Tesla’s latest Full Self Driving software, version 12.5, found that it required a human intervention once every 13 miles. That’s far short of the level of reliability needed for driverless operation.
In contrast, Google’s Waymo has been offering fully driverless rides since 2020. In August, Waymo reached 100,000 weekly rides, a 10-fold increase over the preceding year. Waymo now offers service in four cities, with further expansion planned in the new year.
