Trapped Priors - by DomoFutu - Domo Futu
I first started considering the concept of trapped priors after reading Scott Alexander’s eye-opening post on the subject. His exploration of how deeply-held beliefs resist change struck a chord with me and illuminated new perspectives on rational thinking. Alexander’s analysis paints a vivid picture of why some beliefs become unshakable, preventing us from adapting to new information and making more informed choices.
“The problem,” Alexander states, “is that once your priors get stuck, even mountains of contrary evidence might not be enough to dislodge them.”
This sums up the core issue: trapped priors can create a self-reinforcing loop that keeps beliefs intact, even when reality presents overwhelming proof to the contrary. In this post, I’ll try to work through how trapped priors affect rationality, highlight some real-life examples, and explore practical strategies for breaking free from their grip.
To understand trapped priors, it’s important to first grasp what priors are and how they shape our cognition. A prior belief is an assumption or expectation that stems from past experiences. In Bayesian reasoning, these priors should ideally be updated as new evidence comes to light, allowing our beliefs to evolve and better align with reality.
