Your Gut is Smarter Than Your Spreadsheet: The Art of Software Estimation
Ever been in a meeting where everyone’s tossing around numbers like they’re psychic? Yeah, me too. Let’s chat about why your gut might be better at estimating than you think.
First off, let’s get real about what we’re trying to do here. We’re basically trying to predict the future. No pressure, right?
Here’s a fun fact: who does the estimating can impact the estimate itself. Weird, right? It’s like asking different people how long it takes to boil water, and getting answers ranging from “30 seconds” to “three days.”
A study by Magazinius et al. (2012) found that estimates can vary wildly depending on who’s doing the estimating. Project managers tend to be more optimistic, while developers often lean towards pessimism. It’s like they’re estimating for completely different projects!
But here’s the kicker: the amount of work doesn’t change based on who’s estimating. The code doesn’t care if it’s being estimated by the CEO or the intern. It’ll take as long as it takes.
