A Cynic’s Guide To Fintech

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2024-09-21 20:30:05

A pal working in and around the VC industry asked me the other week what I thought about financial technology, or as the unlovely abbreviation has it, “fintech”. Here are my edited thoughts, from the point of view of someone who spent many years as a banks and diversified financials analyst, and who has some fairly strong prejudices about what works and what doesn’t work in financial services industry. In my view, the portmanteau term “fintech” groups together a number of different business models; I haven’t included “something something Bitcoin” in the list because that’s a slightly different debate. Here’s my partial list …

There are a lot of people out there who have expertise in data science, and who think that the incumbents in the industry don’t have sophisticated risk-based pricing because their technological skills aren’t up to the task of identifying risks. These people tend to think that they can go into the credit cards business, or the payday lending business or even the car insurance business, and pick up market share from the dumb old banks by using algorithms! and social media data! and so on.

This is not true. It is true that banking IT is generally terrible, but actually, if you look into the digital archives of any large incumbent player, you will tend to find an extremely sophisticated, cutting-edge algorithmic risk pricing system which was thrown away a couple of years ago because it worked great in testing and then fell apart really badly in the real world.